Probabilistic time estimation of tunneling projects: The Uri headrace tunnel

Mohammadi, M., Spross, J. and Stille. H. (2022) Probabilistic time estimation of tunneling projects: The Uri headrace tunnel. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering (2022), (link.springer.com) . https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-022-03022-3

The application process of an existing model for probabilistic time and cost estimation of tunneling projects was improved. The improved model was used for time estimation in a case study to demonstrate its application. The outcome of the model application is a mixture distribution of total tunneling time. Further discussion is put forward on the general modeling considerations, the shape of the mixture distribution, and application of the model in tunnels with multiple excavation faces.