Method to produce forecast time tables
In order to be able to make forecasts about future travel, one needs to produce overview timetables for trains and other means of transport in future scenarios. This research project will develop a quantitative method that can act as a starting engine with timetable proposals for the forecasting tool Sampers.
Project name: Method to produce forecast time tables
Project manager: Oskar Fröidh, Transport planning
Participating organisation: KTH: Mohammad Maghrour Zefreh, Josef Andersson
Project period: 2023-2024
Funding: Trafikverket Swedish Transport Administration
Forecast timetables are used as a basis for calculating future travel with the forecast model Sampers. This results in planning documents for benefit calculations of future investments. . Previously, the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) compiled probable developments. The research project aims to improve the methodology for producing forecast timetables. In the project, a supply database is used as empirical basis, supplemented with other statistics regarding population, economy, etc. The analysis is based on finding a new equilibrium position between supply and demand with regard to track capacity and traffic costs. The method developed is quantitative and provides a proposal for a future comprehensive train plan that acts as a starting engine for Sampers. In this project, we work with the train schedule for the East Coast Main Line (Ostkustbanan) as a case study. The result must be able to be implemented in the Swedish Transport Administration's planning system.
